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Learning and Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models

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The extant literature is split on the best measure of marginal cost in the New Keynesian Philips Curve, with the output gap and the labor share being the most commonly advocated proxy measures. Which one is the best measure? In this article, I assume that agents update their understanding and expectation period by period, a learning process. In terms of econometrics, I use a recursive Vector Autoregression approach and conduct a forecasting exercise that considers updating of information sets used for formation of expectation. I find that the traditional output gap measure is a more significant variable explaining the dynamics of the U.S. inflation rate, as compared with a measure of the labor income share. Furthermore, the role of the output gap cannot be replaced using lagged values of inflation.
Instead, both

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Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

Southern Economic Journal

No. Panggil

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Penerbit

: Southern Economic Association., 2011

Deskripsi Fisik

Southern Economic Journal, 78(2), 382-396

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

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Klasifikasi

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Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

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Edisi

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Subjek

EKONOMI

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

Asmawati

Versi lain/terkait

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