e-journal
COMPETING MODELS OF JUDICIAL COALITION FORMATION AND CASE OUTCOME DETERMINATION
ABSTRACT
Forming a coalition on a multi-judge panel involves an inherent trade-off between
coalition maximization and ideological outcome optimization. Much scholarship
is premised on assumptions about how judges make that trade-off; these assumptions
have consequences for how we view and measure judicial decision-making.
Specifying these assumptions, formally modeling their effects, and basing measures
of judicial behavior on these results offer the potential to improve analysis
of judicial decision-making.
This article formally explores three commonly posited modes of judicial
decision-making: a minimum winning coalition model, representing attitudinalist
views of judicial decision-making; a maximum winning coalition, capturing the
effect of norms of joint opinion writing and collegiality; and a strategic model,
incorporating the concept of the credibility of a marginal justice’s threat to defect
from a majority coalition. Each model yields comprehensive predictions of
case outcome positions and coalition sizes under given Court compositions; the
Rehnquist Court and Roberts Courts are examined here. The models are then
operationalized as measures for empirical use. The different impact of the three
measures is illustrated by re-running Baird and Jacobi’s analysis of judicial signaling
on case outcomes using each measure.
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