e-journal
DID A SWITCH IN TIME SAVE NINE?
ABSTRACT
Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s court-packing plan of 1937 and the “switch in time
that saved nine” animate central questions of law, politics, and history. Did
Supreme Court Justice Roberts abruptly switch votes in 1937 to avert a showdown
with Roosevelt? Scholars disagree vigorously about whether Roberts’s
transformation was gradual and anticipated or abrupt and unexpected. Using
newly collected data of votes from the 1931–1940 terms, we contribute to the
historical understanding of this episode by providing the fi rst quantitative evidence
of Roberts’s transformation. Applying modern measurement methods,
we show that Roberts shifted sharply to the left in the 1936 term. The shift
appears sudden and temporary. The duration of Roberts’s shift, however, is in
many ways irrelevant, as the long-term transformation of the Court is overwhelmingly
attributable to Roosevelt’s appointees.
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