e-journal
THE ROLE OF PROBABILITY OF DETECTION IN JUDGMENTS OF PUNISHMENT
ABSTRACT
In nine experiments—one a questionnaire given to Israeli judges, the rest on the
World Wide Web—we examined the effect of probability of detection of an offense
on judgments of punishment. When cases differing in probability were separated,
we found almost no evidence for attention to probability (as found previously by
others). When cases were presented next to each other, however, a substantial
minority of subjects took probability into account. Attention to probability was
increased in one study by a probe manipulation concerning deterrent effects. We
found inconsistent effects of identifying the perpetrator, or of asking subjects to
consider policies versus individuals. Some subjects thought that it was unfair to
consider probability, but more subjects thought that probability was relevant because
of the need for deterrence. We suggest that the failure to consider probability
is to some extent an example of the “isolation effect,” in which people do
not think much about secondary effects, rather than entirely a result of ideological
commitment to a “just deserts” view of punishment.
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