e-journal
Improving ecophysiological simulation models to predict the impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on crop productivity
† Background:
Process-based ecophysiological crop models are pivotal in assessing responses of crop productivity and designing strategies of adaptation to climate change. Most existing crop models generally over-estimate the
effect of elevated atmospheric [CO2], despite decades of experimental research on crop growth response to [CO2].
† Analysis:
A review of the literature indicates that the quantitative relationships for a number of traits, once
expressed as a function of internal plant nitrogen status, are altered little by the elevated [CO2]. A model incorporating these nitrogen-based functional relationships and mechanisms simulated photosynthetic acclimation to elevated [CO2], thereby reducing the chance of over-estimating crop response to [CO2]. Robust crop models
to have small parameterization requirements and yet generate phenotypic plasticity under changing environmental
conditions need to capture the carbon–nitrogen interactions during crop growth.
†Conclusions:
The performance of the improved models depends little on the type of the experimental facilities used to obtain data for parameterization, and allows accurate projections of the impact of elevated [CO2] and other climatic variables on crop productivity.
Key words: Acclimation to elevated CO2, climate change, crop models, impact assessment, model improvement,
nitrogen.
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