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Dealing with Financial Risk
Antonio’s first big mistake in The Merchant of Venice was to bet his whole fortune on a fleet of ships; his second was to borrow 3,000 ducats from a single source. The first rule of risk management is to identify
your risk. The second is to diversify it. Antonio broke the second rule, and his creditor Shylock flunked the first. He found he could not take his pound of Antonio’s flesh without shedding “one drop of Christian blood”: blood had not been specified as part of the bargain.
This is an unusual example. But it illustrates how financial risk management is just an extension of sensible prudence and forethought: to imagine what might go wrong and to guard against it. Modern risk management has developed mathematics and other skills to narrow the field into bands of probabilities. It can never predict,
it can only infer what might happen.
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