e-journal
Testing dominant theories and assumptions in behavioral finance
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically test dominant theories and assumptions in
behavioral finance, using data from the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.
Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis has three parts: to test the assumption of
risk aversion; to examine the dominant theory that the optimal portfolio depends on risk preferences;
and to test prospect theory that decision makers prefer certain outcomes over probable outcomes.
Finally, an alternative model to test prospect theory is introduced.
Findings – The proposed model is more flexible than prospect theory since it does not a priori
assume what value of the portfolio induces risk aversion/seeking, while it does not a priori preclude
linear preferences. Empirical results show that: investors are risk seeking; a change in the sign of
preferences does not necessarily imply a change in the sign of wealth/return and vice versa; and the
optimal portfolio does not depend on preferences.
Practical implications – These findings are helpful to risk managers dealing with models of
behavioural finance.
Originality/value – The contribution of this paper is that it successfully tests fundamental theories and
assumptions in behavioral finance by providing a better alternative to prospect theory in several ways.
Keywords Behavioural economics, Investors, Expectation, Financial forecasting, Risk aversion,Dominant theory, Prospect theory, S&P500
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