e-journal
Reforming the world monetary system
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine Fritz Machlup’s method and use of scenario
analysis in the policy discussions around exchange rate solutions to balance of payments problems.
Design/methodology/approach – The qualitative research on which this paper is based is the
sociohistorical biographical approach, based on a close examination of published works and archival
materials.
Findings – What makes Machlup unique is his focus on the impact to an economic system of discrete
human actions, each set of actions associated with a change in exchange rate policy and the operations
and institutions necessary to implement it. Impact on the system was evaluated in terms of three
values – balance of payments adjustment, liquidity and confidence. In his use of a system’s approach,
his focus on change and adjustment to change, and most particularly his focus on human action,
Machlup is also distinctively Austrian.
Research limitations/implications – This is the first paper generated from the author’s far larger
planned study of Fritz Machlup and the Bellagio Group.
Practical implications – The collaborative exploration of alternative futures by senior teams has
become increasingly important to strategic planning by governments and corporations.
Originality/value – The story of the Fritz Machlup’s contribution to exchange rate regimes,
international trade and the balance of payments has remained largely untold.
Keywords Exchange rate mechanisms, Monetary policy, Balance of payments, International economics
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