e-journal

Exit polls and voter turnout

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After the 2009 referendum on a proposed change to the Danish Law of Succession, it was widely
claimed that the early publication of exit poll results changed the rate of turnout and eventually
the outcome. We investigate this claim and contribute to the wider debate on the implications of
exit polls by setting up and analyzing a formal model. We find that the introduction of an exit poll
influences the incentive to vote both before and after the poll is published, but the signs of the
effects are generally ambiguous. The observation that exit polls influence the incentive to vote
even before they are published is often overlooked. We show that this can lead to premature
conclusions about the impact of exit polls on electoral outcomes. In particular, in cases such as
the Danish referendum where it clearly appears that exit polls changed the outcome, it could well
be that the outcome would have been the same had there been no exit polls.

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Ketersediaan

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Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

Journal of Theoretical Politics

No. Panggil

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Penerbit

Denmark : SAGE Publications Ltd., 2014

Deskripsi Fisik

Journal of Theoretical Politics 2014, Vol 26(1) 117–134

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

DOI:10.1177/09516298

Klasifikasi

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Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

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Edisi

2014, Vol 26(1) 117–134

Subjek

Social

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

dody/Agus

Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

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