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Demand Modeling With Forecast Evolution: An Application to Production Planning

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Abstract
The value of demand forecast information has been the subject of numerous studies in the inventory literature, but has had limited application in production planning. This paper integrates ideas from forecast evolution and inventory theory to plan work releases into a production facility in the face of
stochastic demand. The model, which is solved on a rolling horizon basis, manages the inventory, backorder, and shortfall levels at each planning epoch using chance constraints to represent
desired service levels. The evolution of demand information over time is modeled using the Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution. The model is implemented using historical data from a major semiconductor manufacturer. The value of forecast evolution is quantified using a benchmark model that does not consider forecast evolution.

Index Terms—Production planning, demand modeling, chance constraints, forecast updating/evolution, linear programming, simulation, rolling horizon

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Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING, VOL. 28, NO. 3, AUGUST 2015

No. Panggil

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Penerbit

: IEEE., 2015

Deskripsi Fisik

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING, VOL. 28, NO. 3, AUGUST 2015

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

0894-6507

Klasifikasi

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Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

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Edisi

VOL. 28, NO. 3, AUGUST 2015

Subjek

SEMIKONDUKTOR
LINEAR PROGRAMMING

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

ETY

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