e-book

Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering

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This volume addresses the issue of uncertainty in civil engineering from design
to construction. Failures do occur in practice. Attributing them to a residual
risk or a faulty execution of the project does not properly cover the range of
causes. A closer scrutiny of the design, the engineering model, the data, the
soil-structure-interaction and the model assumptions is required. Usually, the
uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions as well as material parameters
are abundant. Current engineering practice often leaves these issues aside,
despite the fact that new scientific tools have been developed in the past
decades that allow a rational description of uncertainties of all kinds, from
model uncertainty to data uncertainty.

It is the aim of this volume to have a critical look at current engineering
risk concepts in order to raise awareness of uncertainty in numerical computations,
shortcomings of a strictly probabilistic safety concept, geotechnical
models of failure mechanisms and their implications for construction management,
execution, and the juristic question as to who has to take responsibility.
In addition, a number of the new procedures for modelling uncertainty are explained.
Our central claim is that doubts and uncertainties must be openly addressed
in the design process. This contrasts certain tendencies in the engineering
community that, though incorporating uncertainties by one or the
other way in the modelling process, claim to being able to control them.

In our view, it is beyond question that a mathematical/numerical formalization
is needed to provide a proper understanding of the effects of the
inherent uncertainties of a project. Available information from experience, in
situ measurements, laboratory tests, previous projects and expert assessments
should be taken into account. Combining this with the engineering model(s)
- and a critical questioning of the underlying assumptions -, insight is generated
into the possible behavior, pitfalls and risks that might be encountered
at the construction site. In this way workable and comprehensible solutions
are reached that can be communicated and provide the relevant information
for all participants in a complex project.

This approach is the opposite of an algorithm that would provide single
numbers pretending to characterize the risks of a project in an absolute way
(like safety margins or failure probabilities). Such magic numbers do not exist.
Instead of seducing the designing engineer into believing that risks are under
control, we emphasize that understanding the behavior of the engineering
system is the central task and the key to responsible decisions in view of risks
and imponderables.

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Ketersediaan

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Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

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Penerbit

New York : Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg., 2005

Deskripsi Fisik

viii, 242 Hlm.

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

3-540-22246-4

Klasifikasi

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Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

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Edisi

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Subjek

TEKNIK SIPIL

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

agus

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