e-journal
Multivariate Prediction of Subcutaneous Glucose Concentration in Type 1 Diabetes Patients Based on Support Vector Regression
Abstract—Data-driven techniques have recently drawn significant interest in the predictive modeling of subcutaneous (s.c.) glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes. In this study, the s.c. glucose prediction is treated as a multivariate regression problem, whichisaddressedusingsupportvectorregression(SVR).Theproposed method is based on variables concerning: 1) the s.c. glucose profile; 2) the plasma insulin concentration; 3) the appearance of meal-derivedglucoseinthesystemiccirculation;and4)theenergy expenditure during physical activities. Six cases corresponding to differentcombinationsoftheaforementionedvariablesareusedto investigatetheinfluenceoftheinputonthedailyglucoseprediction. Theproposed method is evaluated using a dataset of 27 patientsin free-living conditions. Tenfold cross validation is applied to each datasetindividuallytobothoptimizeandtesttheSVRmodel.Inthe case,wherealltheinputvariablesareconsidered,theaverageprediction errors are 5.21, 6.03, 7.14, and 7.62 mg/dl for 15-, 30-, 60-, and 120-min prediction horizons, respectively. The results clearly indicate that the availability of multivariable data and their effective combination can significantly increase the accuracy of both short-term and long-term predictions.
Index Terms—Subcutaneous (s.c.) glucose concentration, support vector machines, type 1 diabetes.
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